The al-Assad nightmare ends in Syria

1) “We are a bunch of curious people, that’s for sure, who care about the commission of evil in this world,” The Trenchant Observer, Seprember 17, 2013.

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We are prisoners of the moment. News media are very good at telling us everything about the moment they are focusing on, which is usually “breaking news” and new news.

With few exceptions their daily reporting does not encompass the broader historical context that would allow readers to understand why what is happening now is happening now.

Bashar al-Assad has fled Syria as his regime collapsed. That is a good thing.

But before we shift our attention to the new NOW, let us reflect on what has happened in Syria over the last 13 years, and how it relates to broader historical developments in places like Ukraine.

The U.S. and the West turned their eyes away from the massive commission of war crimes by the al-Assad government as it brutally repressed the democratic movement in Syria that was part of the Arab Spring. To be sure, the U.S. supported so-called “moderate” rebels for a while, but then abandoned them after 2012.

After Syria used chemivcal weapons in Ghouta in 2013, crossing Barack Obama’s bright “red line”, Obama flinched at taking resolute military action, punted the ball to Congress, and in the end was suckered by Vladimir Putin’s proposal to resolve the issue by a commitment by Syria to remove chemical weapons and undergo an inspection by an international chemical weapons agency.

Months later, in February 2014, Russia invaded Crimea. After seeing the tepid reaction of Washington and NATO to the February seizure and March annexation of Crimea–sanctions that were but a laughable slap on the wrist, Russia invaded the eastern region of Ukraine known as the Donbas in the summer of 2014, and launched a full-scale invasion by the Russian army beginning in August.

In September, Europe and America imposed serious sanctions on Russia on September 5, 2014, the same date on which Angela Merkel brokered agreement known as the Minsk Protocal (Minsk I) The Protocol broke down due to Russian and Russian puppet ceasefire violations, necessitating a new Minsk Protocol (aminsk II), which was agreed to on February 12, 2015. Throughout the next eight years, some 8,000 people were killed in low-level fighting in the Donbas.

Having observed the weak responses of Obama to these continuing ceasefire violations, Putin and Russia to intervened overtly in Syria in 2015, with Obama’s acquiescence. In an infamous statement, even after Russia had attacked U.S. forces, Obama declared that the U.S. was going to deal with the threat of ISIS by “working through the Russians”.

“Working through the Russians” included standing aside as they committed massive crimes against humanity by bombing Aleppo into rubble in 2015-2016.

In this period Russia built up and secured a long sought-after warm-water port at Tartus.

Putin’s dealings with Obama and Joe Biden, his Viice-President charged with Ukraine policy, seemed to have persuaded him that Biden would not react strongly as he threatened to invade Ukraine in the spring of 2021 and Biden announced the total withdrawal of U.S. forces and contractors from Afghanistan in April 2021, implementing a highly dubious withdrawal agreement with the Taliban reached by Donald Trump on February 29, 2020.

We should never forget the horrors of al-Assad and Putin in Syria. That is where Putin learned he could get away with the massive commission of war crimes and crimes against humanity, with the acquiescence of the U.S. and the West.

In a real sense, the horrors of the Syrian civil war were the prologue to the horrors of the Russian war of agression in Ukraine.

While we denounce the evils of the al-Assad regime, we should not forget the cowardice and acquiescence of the U.S. and the West and their responsibility for the evils that took place there.

The view from Paris: Trump and his nominations as a threat to American national security

BACKGROUND

1) Piotr Smolar (Washington, correspondant), “La sécurité des Etats-Unis mise en question par une série de nominations controversées de Donald Trump
Pour la direction du FBI, la tête du Pentagone et les services de renseignement, le président américain élu a choisi trois personnalités – Kash Patel, Pete Hegseth et Tulsi Gabbard – dont l’incompétence paraît faire courir un risque fort aux Américains.
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Publié le 04 décembre 2024 à 08h25, modifié le 04 décembre 2024 à 09h50

Just as in 1938 or 1939, people in Europe could not imagine tge horrors to come.

Buto what use are prescient aalyses if no one is listening and no one cares. The fate of Cassabdra, who could see the future but no one would believe.

Nuclear Escalation

BACKGROUNS

1) William Langewiesche, “The Secret Pentagon War Game That ​Offers a Stark​ Warning for Our Times; The devastating outcome of the 1983 game reveals that nuclear escalation inevitably spirals out of control, New York Times, December 2, 2024 (10:06 a.m. ET);

2) Phillip P. OBrien, “War Games and Nuclear Weapons: A Modest Proposal
The gap between the games and reality is so large, we need a creative solution,” Philllip’s Newsletter, December 2, 2024;

Ceasefire in Lebanon and Israel; Ukraine ceasefire illusions; and soon a Russian asset in the White House

BACKGROUND

See,

1) Olga Latman, “What’s Going on Between Trump and Russia? ;From Praise to Mafia Style Concerns About Trump’s Safety,” Unmasking Russia, November 19, 2024.

2) James Rowles, “”Russia’s Man in Washington” Prepares Pro-Putin and Pro-Russian U.S. Administration,”Trenchant Observations, “November 14, 2024;

The ceasefire deal in Southern Lebanon and and Norther Israel is a great blessing, not the least because it gives effect to a U.N. Security Council resolution and is otherwise consisten with international law.

The contrast with much current thinking about a ceasefire deal in Ukraine recognizing Russian controm over Ukrainian territory it has conquered by military force could not be greater. The ceasefire agreement in Israel and Lebabon upholds and is backed by international law.

The illusion of a ceasefire in Ukraine based on what supporters euphemistically term “territorial concessions”–the surrender to an invading army–cripples U.S. and Westen military and diplomatic decision-making, production of munitions, and planning for various military contingencies, including the use of nuclear weapons and the introduction of troops from NATO countries and other allies into Ukraine, and even the use of NATO forces against targets in Russia if required to prevent a Russian defeat and takeover of Ukraine.

Ukraine War, November 26, 2024: Putin’s latest threats and Russia’s weakened situation

BACKGROUND

1) AFP/cvb, “Selenskyj-Berater wertet jüngste Drohungen Putins als Ausdruck „absoluter Angst“; Am Donnerstag hatte Russlands Präsident Wladimir Putin mit Angriffen auf die westlichen Länder gedroht. Ein ukrainischer Präsidentenberater wertet dies als Ausdruck „absoluter Angst“ und fordert den Westen zu einer härteren Haltung gegenüber Russland auf,” Die Welt, den 25. November 2024;

The ICC warrants for Netanyahu and Galant

BACKGROUND

1) Kenneth Roth, “The ICC arrest warrants for top Israeli officials are a step toward justice; The warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant are also a reminder to governments arming Israel as it commits war crimes in Gaza, The Gyardian, November 26, 2024 (11.00 GMT);

2) Aluf Benn, “Netanyahu’s boycott of Haaretz won’t stop us reporting the grim truth about Israel’s wars; Unlike most Israeli news outlets, my paper shows the suffering in Gaza and Lebanon. That’s why the government has targeted us,” Haaretz, Novemberv26, 2024 (15.12 GMT);

Aluf Benn is the editor-in-chief of Haaretz

Trump and Europe

2) Sylvie Kauffmann: “EUROPE « Sous l’effet de l’électrochoc Trump, un nouvel alignement émerge en Europe face à la crise ukrainienne
Inquiets de la perspective d’un règlement de la guerre en Ukraine dont ils seraient exclus par le président élu, Donald Trump, certains Européens tentent d’organiser un sursaut stratégique. La Pologne s’active, l’Allemagne est en retrait, analyse Sylvie Kauffmann, éditorialiste au « Monde », dans sa chronique,” Le Monde, le 13 novembre 2024(16:30);