Ukraine War, July 30, 2024: NATO experts sceptical of Ukrainian victory, as Russia gains momentum and territory

1) Christoph B. Schiltz (Korrespondent in Brüsse), Die düstere Ukraine-Realität, über die Nato-Insider nur anonym sprechen wollen;In Brüssel erwartet fast niemand mehr, dass die Ukraine ihre verlorenen Gebiete zurückgewinnen wird. Nur reden will darüber niemand – zumindest offiziell. WELT hat mit einer Reihe von Insidern gesprochen, die ihren düsteren Ausblick mit einer von Europa selbst verschuldeten Tatsache begründen,” Die Welt, den 30. Juli 2024 (08:17 Uhr);

2) Christoph B. Schiltz (Correspondent in Brussels), “The gloomy Ukraine reality that NATO insiders only want to talk about anonymously; In Brussels, almost no one expects Ukraine to regain its lost territories. Only no one wants to talk about it – at least officially. WELT has spoken to a number of insiders who justify their gloomy outlook with a fact self-inflicted by Europe,” Die Welt, July 30, 2024 (08:17 a.m.);

Stop Israeli genocide in Gaza, stop Trump’s fascist movement in America, and stop Russian aggression in Ukraine: Kamala Harris could lead us to a resurgence of democracy and support for international law in the world

“He who fights with monsters should look to it that he himself does not become a monster.”
–Friedrich Nietzsche, Beyond Good and Evil, Chapter 4, 186 (1886)

BACKGROUND

See,

1) Le Monde avec AFP, “Deux journalistes d’Al-Jazira tués dans une frappe israélienne à Gaza; Depuis le début de la guerre entre Israël et le Hamas palestinien dans la bande de Gaza, le 7 octobre 2023, le bureau de la chaîne à Gaza a déjà été bombardé et deux autres de ses correspondants tués, “Le Mobde, le 31 juillet, 2024 (modifié à 20h28);

2) Anika Arora Seth, “Al Jazeera journalist and cameraman killed in Gaza strike; Al Jazeera journalist Ismail al-Ghoul and cameraman Rami al-Rifi were killed in an attack after reporting near the house of slain Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh,” Washington Post, August 1, 2024 (3:58 a.m. EDT);

3) Thomas d’Istria (Kiev,correspondant), “Volodymyr Zelensky: renoncer à des territoires ukrainiens est ‘une question très, très difficile’; Dans un entretien, le président ukrainien fait part de ses réflexions sur l’issue possible de la guerre et appelle la Chine à faire pression sur la Russie pour ouvrir la voie des négociations,” Le Monde, le 31 juillet, 2024 (modifié à 17h45);

4) Thomas d’Istria (Kiev, correspondent),”Interview, Volodymyr Zelensky: giving up Ukrainian territories is “a very, very difficult question”
In an interview, the Ukrainian president shares his thoughts on the possible outcome of the war and calls on China to put pressure on Russia to pave the way for negotiations,” Le Monde, July 31, 2024 (Updated at 5:45 p.m.);

5) Michael Savage and Bethan McKernan, “David Lammy warns of rising risk of full-scale regional war in Middle East; The UK foreign secretary and his French counterpart write in the Observer about their fears over Israel’s escalating tensions with Iran,” TheGuardian, August 17, 2024 (18.47 BST);

6) Peter Beinart, “Harris Can Change Biden’s Policy on Israel Just by Upholding the Law,” NewYork Times, August 18, 2024;
Aug. 18, 2024
***

Whether or not the Internatiinal Court of Justice uktimate hold’s tgat Israel has violated the rems of the 1948 U.?Convention on Genocide, it us evident that israel has been committing tge kinds of war crimes in Gaza that most objective onservers would characterize as genocide. What you call Israel’s actions doesn’t in the end really matter. It is absolutely clear that they have been committing systematic and widespread war crimes which amount to crimes against humanity.

Kamala Harris, if she becomes President after the November 5 elections will have rge power to bring these war crimesto an end, by refusing to vero a U.N. Security Council resolution establishing binding sanctions against israel under Chapter VII of tge United Batons Charter, and applying I.S. domestic law that prohibits the sale or transfer of weapons for any use of than self-defense under international law. Israel has manifestly exceeded the requirements of necessity and proportionality under international law and the U.N. Charter.

U.N. sanctions would have a devastating effect on Israel.

See,

Ronny Linder and Rotem Shtarkman, “What if the U.S. Doesn’t Veto Sanctions Against Israel? ‘It’s the End of the World,’ Says Legal Expert; The effects of mounting sanctions on settlers won’t be limited to the West Bank, and they’re already chipping away at Israel’s international legitimacy, says Shuki Friedman, vice president of the Jewish People Policy Institute,” Haaretz, July 28, 2024 (5:10 pm IDT);

2) Rami G Khouri, “”Could Palestine decide the US presidential election?
De facto Democratic candidate Kamala Harris may need the support of key progressive and pro-Palestinian communities to win,Al Jazeera, July 30, 2024.

Rami G Khouri is Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Arab Center Washington

Democratic stampede toward Harris can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory

The most dangerous moment for making a fateful decision is just after you have achieved a victory, and this is true for individual, groups, and political parties.

Democrats show signs of sweeping reason aside as they are flush with the joy of Buden’s wirgdrawal from the race and avoiding certain defeat in November in the elections for the presidency, the Senate, and tge House.

These are the same Democrats tgat allowed Joe Biden tomrig the Democratic primary process sonthat he would not have tonfacecany real competition for the nomination.

These are the same Democrats who hardly raised a peep when Joe Biden and Merrick Garland decided not to investigate and orosecute Donald Trump and his accomplices for trying to overthrow the 2020 presidential election and the Constitution,

These are tge same Democrats who remained silent while Merrick Garland allowed tge statute of limitations to run out in the ten cases of obstruction of justice tgat Robert Mueller described in hus report, along with an outline of the abindant evidence supporting an porential indictmentin each of the ten cases.

These are the same Democrats who allowed Nancy Pelosi to avoid launching a broad impeachment investigation of Trump and his many crimes, and who were satisfied with a narrow impeachment investigation for Trump’s high crimes and misdemeanors related to seeking private advantages and withholding foreign aid in Ukraine.

These are tge same Democrats who waited until the very last minute to bring pressure on Biden to withdraw from the race, long past the time itvwas clear he would lose and only when it became he would drag down the Democrats in the Senate and the House with him tondefeat.

These are tge same Democrats, or at least many of them, who sing high praises of Biden’s courage and statesmanship, ignoring tge fact tgat he fought tooth and nail to hold on to the nomination and only let go in the face of a broad and quickening revolt by Representatives and Senators and a virtual end of contributions from large-scale donors to his campaign.

Yet fir all of their fault Democratic leaders in the House and tge Senate did finally step up to the challenge and did the right thing by pressuring Biden to resign.

And Joe Biden, yielding to these oressures and the prospect of certain defeat, did finally decide to release his grip on the Democratic nomination. He deserves credit for doing the right thing, for acting to save the Democratic Party and tge country from Donald Trump and the fascist threat he and tge current Republican Party represent.

Yet he does nit deserve credit for an act if heroism, of immense self-sacrifice, for simply yielding to his inevitable fate.

Biden deserves credit, if you want to call it that, for not dragging the Democratic Party and the country to defeat and the triumph of fascism in the United States.

The effusive praise heaped on Biden for his decision to withdraw only underlines the extent tonwhich the Democrats have taken leave of their senses in the present moment of euphoria and defeat.

This is not a moment when Democrats should join a stampede toward tge coronation of Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee.

They face a choice between annointing Harris as the Democratic candidate, and one who might well beat Donald Trump.

On the other hand she might not. And the risk that she might not means tge Democrats and the country still face the terifying risk that Donald Trump and the Republicans might win in November, ushering in a government of fascist inclination and even plans, led by a cult leader who has no respect for the truth, the law, or American democratic traditions.

News reports indicate that business leaders are increasingly leaning toward supporting Trump, operating on the assumption that they will be able to control him. Big business swung behind Adolf Hitler in 1932 and 1933, and tbrived under his leadership–until the country was destroyed in World War II.

The history of Hitler and the Nazi regime is instructive in ine further respect. As the attempt on Trump’s life has just remibded us, unexpected and violent acts can change the course of history, The attempted assassination of Trump failed by an inch. Who knows what would have happened had he been killed.

On February 27, 1933, less than two months after Hitler became Chancellor of Germany, the German Reichstag burned down. In all likelihood the fire was set by the Nazis, though this was never definitively proven.

Following the fire, Hitler accelerated the arrests and oppression of his opponents. In elections on March 5, 1933, the Nazis picked up seats and became tge largest party in the legislature. On March 23, the Reichstag passed the so-called Enabling Law which granted Hitler dictatorial powers. That was the end of democracy in Germany. It all happened very suddenly.

The threat to democracy posed by Trump and the fsscist Republican Party is very real. Unexpected events could lead to sudden shifts in public opininion, resulting in Republican victories.

Consequently, the Democrats should aim for a big victory in November, and not a narrow one which could slip away under the force of unexpected events.

Whether Kama Harris is the strongest potential candidate to produce such a victory is open to doubt.

She brings with her all of tge baggage of tge Biden administration. Republicans will campaign against her as if she were Biden.

She will be a hot target on the issue of immigration, which was one of her prinvipal portfolios. Whether the situation has actually improved under Biden is a factual question, in an election in which many voters are not lijely to investigate or be persuaded by the facts.

Harris has other negatives.

She was a poor candidate in the 2020 Democratic primaries. She failed to gain traction with potential voters and was forced to drop out of the race before the first elections. Voters didn’t like her.

She was chosen to be the vice-presidential candidate in 2029 because of identity politics in the Democratic Party. Independent voters and Republicans who might vote Democratic are unlikely to be persuaded by the identity politics

With so much at stake, tge Democrats need tonavoid a stampede toward Kamala Harris if tgey want to field the strongest possible can-dates against Trump and J.D. Vance.

Tgere are other potential candidates who might not merely eke out a narrow victory over Trump, but rather lead a broad and deep Democratic victory in the presidential race, in the Senate, and in the House.

Given the extraordinarily poor quality of tge Republican candidates, if the Democrats can choose their strongest candidates who will not be playing defense from day one, they might well achieve a Democratic sweep and lanslide that erase Ztrump and hus fascist cult from the American political landscape.

fragments for Kamala Harris Ii article

Playing the race card — July, 2024

2. Playing the race card: Ambushing Biden in 2020 primary debates

3. Identity politics: Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) puts Harris on the ticket

4.

5. Avoid premature coronation

a. Rachel Maddow on MSNBC

b. Michigan and Wisconsis key swing states
–Whitmer is key who could make tge difference
–Can’t have two women on ticket: voters won’t go for it

6. Newson has best record, would be besr candidate

A narrow or a huge Democratic victory in November? Democratic euphoria should not lead to the premature coronation of Kama Harris

notes

1. Playing the race card — July, 2024

2. Playing the race card: Ambushing Biden in 2020 primary debates

3. Identity politics: Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) puts Harris on the ticket

4. A poor candidate in 2020–failed ro gain traction. Voters didn’t like her.

5. Avoid premature coronation

a. Rachel Maddow on MSNBC

b. Michigan and Wisconsis key swing states
–Whitmer is key who could make tge difference
–Can’t have two women on ticket: voters won’t go for it

6. Newson has best record, would be besr candidate

a. Newson-Whitmer icket could lead to Democratic landslide, up and down
the ticket

b. Newsom and Whitmer could make the case against Trump

c. Whitmer could destroy J.D. Vance in a debate and on the stump

International Court of Justice, in advisory opinion, holds Israeli settlements on West Bank violate international law

1) Isanel Ferrer y Luis de Vega, “El tribunal de la ONU considera que los asentamientos de Israel en Palestina ‘violan el derecho internacional’; ‘Es una anexión permanente’, argumenta el organismo internacional, que insta al Gobierno israelí a detener la colonización y también a reparar el daño causado por la ocupación,” El País, el 19 de julio 024 (Actualizado a las 12:43 EDT);

2) Isanel Ferrer and Luis de Vega, “The UN court considers that Israel’s settlements in Palestine “violate international law’;
‘It is a permanent annexation,’ argues the international organization, which urges the Israeli Government to stop colonization and also to repair the damage caused by the occupation,” July 19, 2024 (Updated 12:43 EDT);

3) “Israels Siedlungspolitik verstößt laut UN-Gericht gegen Völkerrecht; Die israelische Siedlungspolitik in besetzten palästinensischen Gebieten verstößt nach Auffassung des höchsten UN-Gerichts gegen internationales Recht. Israel mache sich faktisch der Annektierung schuldig, stellt der Internationale Gerichtshof (IGH) in Den Haag fest,” Die Welt, den 19. Juli 2024;

4) “According to the UN court, Israel’s settlement policy violates international law; In the opinion of the highest UN court, the Israeli settlement policy in occupied Palestinian territories violates international law. Israel is in fact guilty of annexation, the International Court of Justice (IGH) in The Hague finds, DiecWely, July 19, 2024.

5) “EU befürwortet IGH-Beschluss zu „unrechtmäßiger“ Besatzung;
Stand: 20.07.2024 | Lesedauer: 2 Minuten; Der Internationale Gerichtshof hat Israels anhaltende Präsenz in den palästinensischen Gebieten am Freitag als „unrechtmäßig“ eingestuft. Die EU bekräftigt nun diesen Beschluss. Der israelische Regierungschef Benjamin Netanjahu sprach hingegen von einer „Lügen-Entscheidung“, Die Welt, den 20. Juli 2024;

6) “EU endorses IGH decision on “unlawful” occupation; The International Court of Justice classified Israel’s continued presence in the Palestinian territories as “unlawful” on Friday. The EU now reaffirms this decision. The Israeli head of government Benjamin Netanyahu, on the other hand, spoke of a ‘lie decision’,” Die Welt, July 20, 2024;

7) Associated Press, “”World Court Says Israel’s Occupation Violates International Law; The International Court of Justice laid out it’s most sweeping stance on Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem, and its settlements, calling for an end to Israel’s presence there. The advisory opinion, while not binding, carries legal weight,” New York Times July 19, 2024 (video excerpt).

.

1) David A. Grahamm “The Cases Against Trump: A Guide; Thirty-four felony convictions. Charges of fraud, election subversion, and obstruction. One place to keep track of the presidential candidate’s legal troubles, ” The Atlantic, July 18, 2024 (11:17 AM ET);

Biden is a despicable old man whose vanity puts American democracy and the world at great risk

““Name me a foreign leader who thinks I’m not the most effective leader in the world on foreign policy,” Mr. Biden said, adding, “Tell me who the hell that is.”

President Joe Biden has become delusional and, like Trump, believes only he can save democracy and the world.

Like Trump, his narcissism is so great that it is a threat to American democracy.

If he stays in the race, Biden is extremely likely to usher in government by Trump and his fascist supporters.

The sheer hubris of the man is mind-boggling. He is doing everything he can to cling to the nomination in a desperate effort to cling to power.

He and his retinue argue that he has done a great job as president since 2021, despite the worst foreign policy record since World War II, and domestic failures such as not investigating and prosecuting Trump abd his accomplices for nearly two years.

Most scholars and experts, horrified at Donald Trump and fearful of hurting Democratic prospects in elections, have refrained from any sustained and hard-eyed criticism of Biden and his policies. Many work as consultants to government officials and on government projects. Their reticence is perhaps understandable, though one wonders what itvwould take for them to take a stand.

In the foreign policy arena, at least, we have been a notable exception. We have excoriated Biden and his very weak foreign policy team for a number of strategic errors, including in particular his decision in 2021 to withdraw all American military forces and advisers from Afghanistan.

With the Afghanistan withdrawal, he not only abandoned 40 million Afghans to a cruel fate under the Taliban, medieval religious zealots, but also abandoned 20 million Afghan girls and women to a harsh life of utter oppression by men under a regime which will not let them go to school, study at the university, or do professional work. Indeed, they cannot leave their homes unless escorted by a male relative.

Biden asserted that none of his advisers had opposed the withdrawal, despite the fact that his military leaders had firmly opposed his decision to withdraw. On this point, Biden repeatedly lied.

Even those urging Biden to withdraw from seeking the Democratic nomination routinely assert the decision is solely his to make. This may be true under the bureaucratic rules of the Democratic National Committee, which presumably can be changed, but it is certainly not true in any broader sense.

Everyone is singing Biden’s praises as they seek to coax him into surrendering his death grip on the nomination. One is reminded of a quip by Will Rogers who once said,

Diplomacy is the art of saying ‘Nice doggie’ until you can find a rock.

Democratic leaders are currently engaged in the kind of diffident diplomacy Will Rogers would understand.